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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward pattern. It commonly functions as a kind of apology. Our apologies we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a direct path: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic resurgence is handed the award. In practice, it fuels an annual debate about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding excellent leadership or just the most shocking upset.

However this year's competition is distinctly different. The group of nominees is exceptionally talented. It has been the year of comebacks. The league has been messy, with reigning division champions falling away and recent strugglers rising in unison. In an normal season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in this wild and entertaining year, he's competing with multiple other outstanding coaches.

This is how the projected vote should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors love QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his special ability. Since Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system rather than freelancing. It is an offense constructed entirely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a steady dose of play-action and a innovative passing attack that creates wide-open receivers all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been able to conjure magic from broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost every decision – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has paid off. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the building with the level of expectations he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a ordinary year, he would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet the current is not a normal campaign!

The area where his candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. But he comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has nailed the intangibles aspects, which was not a certainty following his initial public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, he hired first-timers. From the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

After an initial hot start, there was a possibility that the season would go off the rails. A midseason setback had the team wobbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year case has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the season in October. Rather, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has fallen away after that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him only one spot ahead of peers.

Still